Climate ‘tipping points’ may arrive without warning: Study

13 FEB 2010

A drought-hit village near Allahabad.,Scientists feel global climate change is already causing major environmental effects, such as droughts, heat waves and rising sea level.

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It is harder than experts thought to predict when sudden shifts in earth’s natural systems will occur, a new study has claimed.

Researchers at University of California, Davis, said many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes or improving our preparations for them but unfortunately that regime shifts can happen without warning.

“It is harder than thought to predict when sudden shifts in earth’s natural systems will occur. Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning — systems can tip precipitously,” senior author Alan Hastings said.

Mr. Hastings said, “This means that some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible.”

The current study focuses on models from ecology, but its findings may be applicable to other complex systems, especially ones involving human dynamics such as harvesting of fish stocks or financial markets.

The team led by Mr. Hastings, one of the world’s top experts, is using mathematical models (sets of equations) to understand natural systems, theScience Daily reported.

Scientists widely agree that global climate change is already causing major environmental effects, such as droughts, heat waves and rising sea level and they fear that worse is in store.

Pollution control: India ranks 123rd

WASHINGTON: India and China rank 123rd and 121st in pollution control respectively, reflecting the strain environment, according to the 2010 Environmental Performance Index (EPI).

However, among the other newly industrialised nations Brazil and Russia rank 62nd and 69th, suggesting that the level of development is just one of many factors affecting pollution control.

Iceland leads the world in addressing pollution control and natural resource management challenges, according to the index produced by a team of environmental experts at Yale University and Columbia University.

Presented Thursday at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2010, the EPI ranks 163 countries on their performance across 25 metrics aggregated into ten categories including environmental health, air quality, water resource management, biodiversity and habitat, forestry, fisheries, agriculture, and climate change.

Iceland’s top-notch performance derives from its high scores on environmental public health, controlling greenhouse gas emissions, and reforestation, according to a media release from Yale University. Other high performers include Switzerland, Costa Rica, Sweden, and Norway.